{"id":898462,"date":"2021-02-04T15:14:24","date_gmt":"2021-02-04T22:14:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.myconstructionexpert.com\/blog\/?p=898462"},"modified":"2021-02-04T15:14:29","modified_gmt":"2021-02-04T22:14:29","slug":"confirmation-bias-mediation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.myconstructionexpert.com\/blog\/confirmation-bias-mediation\/","title":{"rendered":"Addressing Confirmation Bias in Mediation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Patricia H. Thompson | Forum on Construction Law<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Confirmation bias is the innate human tendency to look for and interpret information consistent with one\u2019s existing beliefs and to ignore inconsistent information, even if that information is demonstrably true. A trial witness\u2019 devastating demonstration of confirmation bias is the climax of the recent, popular HBO mini-series,\u00a0The Undoing. While exposing the harm caused by a party\u2019s failure to face damaging facts makes excellent court room drama, in real life, advocates have the ethical obligation to do their best to ensure their clients fully appreciate the risks inherent in their legal dispute well in advance of trial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, adverse risk analysis also can be challenging for attorneys, due to their natural confidence in their own skills and a proven tendency of trial lawyers to be unrealistically optimistic about their likely success. While such overconfidence may be natural, overconfidence does not guarantee success. A\u00a0recent article<\/a>\u00a0in the Miami-Dade, Florida Daily Business Review offered a stark example of seasoned trial counsel\u2019s failure to accurately predict the outcome of litigation. Pretrial, the defendant\u2019s \u201cgold standard defense\u201d team estimated the worst-case damage estimate at $1.5 million. The jury disagreed, awarding the plaintiff $72.9 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Outside counsel\u2019s preparation of a client for mediation<\/a> should be a perfect opportunity to ensure the client appreciates the risks of proceeding to trial, especially any risks the client might not welcome or want to credit as being inconsistent with its opinion as to the validity of its claims or defenses.\u00a0 One way for both counsel and a client to more accurately assess litigation risk in the face of inherent biases is to jointly engage in a formal, disciplined identification of those aspects of the case about which the parties and counsel have little control, and to assess the consequences if these risks do not proceed as hoped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such considerations will vary, but might include:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jury issues such as<\/em>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 Undisclosed juror bias or cultural considerations or the possibility of not seating a jury with the sophistication and objectivity to resolve complex or emotionally charged issues, especially given the limited number of pre-emptory strikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 In a lengthy trial, jurors may stop listening to the defense, because they already believe the plaintiff\u2019s case (which is another example of the risk of confirmation bias) \u2013 or the reverse: that the jury will only remember the witnesses they heard most recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 The possibility that a juror will research the case or issues on the Internet and, based on adverse publicity, reach a decision unrelated to the trial evidence?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evidentiary issues such as<\/em>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 Losing an important\u00a0in limine<\/em>\u00a0motion.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 The possibility that the client\u2019s fact or expert witnesses may unexpectedly under-perform, become unavailable, or otherwise are compromised by undisclosed testimony in other cases or unforeseen credibility lapses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 Unexpectedly overperforming opposing witnesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 The difficulty and possibly boring nature of having to present evidence in a lengthy, virtual hearing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 The risk in multi-party cases, such as construction disputes, that parties necessary to your client\u2019s case may settle before or at trial, leaving your client to present its case alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Judicial issues, including<\/em>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 Judicial bias, undisclosed or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 Unfavorable jury instructions or special verdict form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Post-trial issues<\/em>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 The risk of bad publicity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 The financial risk of an adverse judgment on other client agreements or relationships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 Uncollectability of your client\u2019s anticipated, successful money judgment or fee award.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 Unfavorable result on appeal, including the cost of retrial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mediation offers a unique challenge to outside counsel to provide their clients the valuable and, indeed, indispensable service of rationally identifying and evaluating the merits and risks of their side of a dispute. Undergoing a disciplined process of identifying and analyzing messy and unwelcome facts as part of mediation preparation should help clients face unpleasant truths. Only then can the client feel confident in deciding whether the other side\u2019s settlement offer really is a better alternative to trial.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Patricia H. Thompson | Forum on Construction Law Confirmation bias is the innate human tendency to look for and interpret information consistent with one\u2019s existing beliefs and to ignore inconsistent information, even if that information is demonstrably true. A trial witness\u2019 devastating demonstration of confirmation bias is the climax of the recent, popular HBO mini-series,\u00a0The… Continue reading Addressing Confirmation Bias in Mediation<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[13],"tags":[9895,11414,79],"class_list":["post-898462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mediation","tag-advise-consult","tag-confirmation-bias","tag-mediation-2","entry"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nAddressing Confirmation Bias in Mediation - 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