{"id":901343,"date":"2023-06-28T15:15:06","date_gmt":"2023-06-28T21:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.myconstructionexpert.com\/blog\/?p=901343"},"modified":"2023-06-28T15:15:11","modified_gmt":"2023-06-28T21:15:11","slug":"wildfire-risk-collide-with-development-texas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.myconstructionexpert.com\/blog\/wildfire-risk-collide-with-development-texas\/","title":{"rendered":"One More Thing Moving From California to Texas: Wildfire Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Patrick Sisson | Bloomberg<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate change and development are set to collide in the booming Austin-San Antonio megaregion as housing expands into fire-prone wildlands.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In early January, Keith Elwell was doing one of the things he does best, swinging chainsaws to help save forests from wildfire. Amid groves of junipers and white oak trees, Elwell led a team of a half-dozen volunteers, clearing brush and dead limbs in Twin Springs Preserve in Williamson County, Texas, a 170-acre county preserve a 40-minute drive north of downtown Austin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Set on the northeastern edge of Hill Country, a rolling, rocky landscape of natural springs and wild grasses, it\u2019s also adjacent to Georgetown,\u00a0the fastest-growing city in the United States\u00a0according to US Census Bureau data. Once a small farming town, it\u2019s now an Austin suburb of\u00a0more than 75,000 people\u00a0with\u00a060 subdivisions under construction.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"relates
Team Rubicon\u2019s fire mitigation operation in January 2023. Photo courtesy Team Rubicon<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Elwell\u2019s volunteer group, Team Rubicon, does this kind of fire mitigation work as part of its larger mission to help communities withstand natural disasters. The operation at Twin Springs was meant to create a shaded firebreak, by ridding a wide swath of the park\u2019s north side of small saplings, limbs, and dead trees that can serve as lighter fuel for any blaze. Over five days, Elwell and his crew, chainsaws and chippers at the ready, cut a corridor, carting away 105,000 cubic feet of tree debris.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate change and the weather extremes that accompany it make this work more critical than ever. But the danger, says Elwell, is being exacerbated by sprawl. Williamson County\u2019s population grew 50% in the last decade, part of an explosion of development that\u2019s making the vast Austin-to-San Antonio megaregion more susceptible to wildfire. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUrban sprawl is definitely a factor,\u201d said Elwell, a retired defense industry project manager.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He grew up in the surrounding Hill County region, and remembers the brush fires that frequently swept the dry scrubland \u2014 real estate that\u2019s now laced with winding suburban streets and new homes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI don\u2019t want to be a doomsday guy,\u201d he said, \u201cbut it could spread really badly because these areas are booming.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avoiding Tomorrow\u2019s Megafire<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Many Texas leaders love to contrast the state with California, emphasizing its wide-open regulatory landscape as an antidote to deep-blue liberal excess. But increasingly, both of these populous states share a similar set of interrelated concerns \u2014 a combustible combination of expansive exurban development and climate-change-fueled extreme weather. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe fire risk in Austin is pretty serious, and I don\u2019t think there\u2019s a level of awareness that there is in California,\u201d said Alison Alter, an Austin city council member who represents the northwest corner of the Texas capital and has been actively raising the alarm on the issue since a 2019 audit. \u201cIf you look at the maps and see the areas of risk, they run in rings around the city. You can imagine the embers from a fire, which can travel one-and-a-half miles, starting to leapfrog to people\u2019s homes and developments. If it gets to the center of town, that\u2019s an enormous risk. We\u2019ve been very, very lucky. The structural vulnerability is in the billions of dollars.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In general, the wildfire peril in Texas\u00a0can\u2019t compare\u00a0to that in California, which is among the highest in the world, said Sam Carter, founding principal of Resilient Cities Catalyst. Since the start of 2020, 24,519 blazes have consumed roughly 7.2 million acres of the Golden State,\u00a0according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, leading to tens of billions of dollars in damages to homes and businesses, as well as 45 deaths. Recent state budgets have\u00a0devoted billions of dollars\u00a0to preparing for and fighting wildfires.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"USA
Wildfire rages east of Bastrop, Texas, in September 2011. Photographer: Robert Daemmrich Photography Inc\/Corbis Historical via Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But concerns about runaway blazes are growing,\u00a0especially in the area around and in between\u00a0San Antonio and Austin, a fast-growing part of the country expected to be home to 6.7 million people by 2030. This part of Central Texas is no stranger to megafires: In 2011, nearly 1,700 buildings were destroyed when a wildfire\u00a0tindered by downed power lines\u00a0raced through drought-parched subdivisions in Bastrop County, southeast of Austin. More than 30,000 acres burned and two people were killed.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The region used to burn more frequently than it does now, said \u200b\u200bAlex Bregenzer, community wildfire protection plans program coordinator at the Texas A&M Forest Service. That natural cycle is being disrupted by development in Hill Country, led by the expanding\u00a0I-35 corridor between the two growing cities, which\u00a0will see a major multi-billion-dollar expansion breaking ground in 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now\u00a0Texas is just behind California in\u00a0the number of buildings in danger of wildfire damage<\/a>: More than a third of the land area of Austin is considered high risk. Austin is also the municipality with the fifth-highest cost for recovery and rebuilding from wildfires, ranked behind four cities in California.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the region, mostly grassland, doesn\u2019t have the types of fires that make big headlines \u2014 the pyrotechnic pine-fueled conflagrations known as crown fires \u2014 many residents aren\u2019t as aware of the dangers they can pose. But embers can still jump over a mile, spreading the fires between buildings and subdivisions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"USA
Destroyed homes in Bastrop County in 2011. Photographer: Robert Daemmrich Photography Inc\/Corbis Historical via Getty Images. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have a lot of people that are migrating from other Western states \u2014 wildfire refugees \u2014 and they think they\u2019re leaving wildfire country to be in a safer area,\u201d said Justice Jones, the Wildfire Division Manager for the Austin Fire Department. \u201cAnd it\u2019s just a different kind of risk.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Development and Disaster <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Any land that isn\u2019t explicitly protected is \u201cpotentially fair game,\u201d Travis County Commissioner Ann Howard\u00a0told\u00a0Austin Monthly<\/em>\u00a0last year. In Georgetown, for example, wildfire doesn\u2019t factor into planning decisions, and the city doesn\u2019t track how many buildings are at risk, according to the town\u2019s fire marshal, Jason Fryer. \u201cThe wildfire risk is something that we can only help out with the individual homeowner, or their homeowner\u2019s association,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As climate change alters weather patterns, and more homes are built in harm\u2019s way by the region\u2019s real estate boom, experts fear that Texas-style development is setting itself up for a wildfire disaster. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe continue to believe, as a society, that if we just treat vegetation, or wildland forests and reduce all that fuel, we can continue to build homes where we want and how we want, regardless of the risk,\u201d said Kimiko Barrett, Wildfire Research & Policy Lead at the nonprofit Headwaters Economics. \u201cAt some point, we\u2019re going to have to start addressing the built environment, because we continue to put homes in harm’s way.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bregenzer specifically worries about a fire near a high-density area in a community that hasn\u2019t done fire mitigation work, where the majority of homeowners and renters aren\u2019t familiar with the threat; that\u2019s when a wildfire is going to \u201cimpact that community in a severe way.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2016, Texas A&M did an analysis of Hays, Comal, Bexar, and Travis counties \u2014 the latter which contains Austin \u2014 which lie within the I-35 corridor, and found 1.1 million people in those counties, 39% of the total population, live in the wildland-urban interface, or WUI, a higher-risk region where development runs up against natural areas. Within that subset, 423,000 are living in high-density areas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe’ve been having significant wildfire seasons since the late \u201990s,\u201d Bregenzer said. \u201cBut not everybody understands that there is a wildfire risk within the communities they are living in. It\u2019s one of those things where until something happens, a lot of people just don\u2019t take action.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Pandemic
Homebuilding in Austin is pressing further into undeveloped countryside. Photographer: Jordan Vonderhaar\/Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Texas, of course, isn\u2019t alone when it comes to rising threats from wildfire\u00a0amid increased sprawl and exurban development. Significant parts of\u00a0North Carolina\u00a0and\u00a0Florida\u00a0are now under high fire risk. Wildfires were once largely limited to\u00a0lightly populated areas, said Richard White, head of research and development at LightBox, a data and analytics platform.\u00a0\u201cBut that\u2019s changed over the last five\u00a0to 10 years,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s not a small subdivision anymore \u2014 it\u2019s multiple subdivisions that are being threatened.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this year,\u00a0US Fire Administration Director Lori Moore-Merrell spoke of the compounding risk\u00a0facing suburban areas; residents have less time to escape burning homes, and an increased chance of dying in a blaze, especially if they are poorer, minority or live in public housing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the climate shifts and weather patterns get hotter, like\u00a0last year\u2019s record-breaking Texas summer, the likelihood of a destructive blaze increases. But extreme heat and drought aren\u2019t the only concerns: Bregenzer said the increased temperatures have been accompanied by heavier downpours in recent years, bringing on rapid growth of brushy vegetation that then becomes tinder during dry seasons. The region\u2019s fire season has also stretched out: What was once a summer-to-fall fire season has started to bleed into winter, or even\u00a0\u201cfire years\u201d of near-constant blazes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other natural disasters can play a role in increasing fire dangers. Ice storms and deep freezes, like those that accompanied last year\u2019s Winter Storm Uri, cause tree damage that weakens limbs and branches, said Robert Abbott, fire chief of Lake Travis Fire Rescue, a booming suburb 20 minutes northwest of Austin, making forests more brittle and fire-prone. High winds from Tropical Storm Lee produced the gusty conditions that fed the 2011 Bastrop fire. Plumes from that fire were visible from Austin, said Jones, who felt the city really \u201cdodged a bullet that year.\u201d While no megafire has been sparked since, sporadic blazes have broken out within city limits. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Austin
A helicopter helps douse a grass fire approaching a residential neighborhood on the outskirts of Austin in August 2022. Photographer: John Moore\/Getty Images North America<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Demand for fire mitigation far outstrips supply: FEMA, the federal emergency agency, dispensed $30 million nationally for brush removal exercises, according to Team Rubicon. But that just covers 8% of the requests the agency receives. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRisk is determined not just by whether an event happens but what happens when that event occurs,\u201d said Carter. \u201cSo if you\u2019re putting assets with value in a risky zone, that is increasing risk.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Texas exemplifies how development can track\u00a0with disaster; last year, the state added 230,000 new residents, who, if they were homeowners,\u00a0received a 40% higher property insurance bill due to rising wildfire dangers. The Austin metro area permitted more buildings per capita than any other in the US in 2022, Alter says \u2014 a building boom that contrasts sharply with California cities that have struggled to add housing. But the stiffer environmental and land-use regulations and community pushback that so often stymie Golden State developers (and frustrate housing advocates) can also make it harder to build within the WUI.The more lenient regulatory environment in Texas means that developers face fewer barriers \u2014\u00a0especially in the booming Austin-San Antonio megaregion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lake Travis fire chief Abbott points to areas of concern like Spicewood, Jonestown, and sites\u00a0near the Pedernales River, where new or coming\u00a0developments are taking shape around areas of significant wildfire risk. Dallas billionaire Steve Winn\u2019s proposed 1,400-acre Mirasol Springs project, which has already drawn\u00a0criticism from conservationists\u00a0over the threats the project could pose to wildlife and the Hill Country\u2019s\u00a0rural character, would also place high-end housing in an area already ringed with gated communities and subdivisions. A 1,900-acre project broke ground last April\u00a0in New Braunfels, in Comal County.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Dallas
Water levels were low in the drought-ravaged Pedernales River in January 2023. Photographer: Jordan Vonderhaar\/Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In response to fire risks, Abbott says that developers have stopped planting as many trees on their properties, or switched to less-flammable building materials, such as metal and tile roofs. But they\u2019re still placing homes right up against the edge of ranch lands or heavily vegetated preserves or wildlands. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Creating a more fire-resilient central Texas would require a holistic approach and a lot of coordination between property owners: Unlike California, with its massive stock of state and national forests preserves and parks, 90% of Texas land is privately owned. Bregenzer argues that more fuel reduction work like the kind team Rubicon focuses on can help box in blazes and reduce the potential for massive fire. Community awareness and action also can go a long way. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Austin, Alter has pushed for the development of a recognized home safety standard, that homeowners could apply for, to show insurance companies that their property is fire safe, but that\u2019s still in the works. The city introduced a\u00a0Wildland-Urban Interface fire building code\u00a0in 2020, but it only applies to new structures in parts of the city deemed at high risk. Additional funding for wildfire training for city firefighters, as well as the development of more fire-aware coordination between city departments, has made the city a model for the region. But, as Barrett says, this is a case where you can only be as safe as your neighbor; fire researchers speak of contagion spread between neighboring buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"relates
A prescribed burn outside of Austin. Regular treatment of dry grasslands with controlled fires can reduce the risk of larger and more destructive blazes. Courtesy Austin Fire Department<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Much more work needs to be done. Most of the state still operates on the International Fire Code, which doesn\u2019t include residential fire code enforcement powers. Across the US, only\u00a0two of every five fire departments\u00a0are specifically trained to cope with fires in the WUI. Currently,the Austin\/San Antonio region has\u00a040 Firewise communities, a program that promotes home hardening (upgrading homes with fire-resistant materials and design),\u00a0coordinated emergency response and resiliency planning. A number of municipalities in the region have also introduced\u00a0Community Wildlife Protection Plans, which coordinate local stakeholders and response plans in the event of a fire.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bregenzer is optimistic the state and region are on the right track, and hopes to empower communities to be more proactive about the rising risks. But one thing he isn\u2019t expecting is any curb on growth: He can\u2019t think of any areas in that corridor where development is forbidden due to wildfires. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDevelopment is development,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

When one of your cases is in need of a construction expert, estimates, insurance appraisal or umpire services in defect or insurance disputes – please call Advise & Consult, Inc. at 888.684.8305, or email experts@adviseandconsult.net<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Patrick Sisson | Bloomberg Climate change and development are set to collide in the booming Austin-San Antonio megaregion as housing expands into fire-prone wildlands.\u00a0 In early January, Keith Elwell was doing one of the things he does best, swinging chainsaws to help save forests from wildfire. Amid groves of junipers and white oak trees, Elwell… Continue reading One More Thing Moving From California to Texas: Wildfire Risk<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[7,9721],"tags":[9895,56,9943],"class_list":["post-901343","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expert-witness","category-property-damage","tag-advise-consult","tag-property-damage","tag-wildfires","entry"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nOne More Thing Moving From California to Texas: Wildfire Risk - 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